A year of attacks has had little impact so far, but experts warn that a devastating strike could cripple world oil supplies.

DHAHRAN, SAUDI ARABIA -
Escalating sabotage against pipelines in Iraq is heightening fears that extremists plan a wholesale assault on energy targets across the Middle East and are taking dead aim at the world's largest oil supplier - Saudi Arabia.

The head of Saudi Arabia's state oil monopoly is confident the industry is well-protected. Independent experts say an attack on any major Saudi facilities could cripple world oil supplies. So far, a year's worth of attacks has had little impact on the Saudi industry. While gunmen linked to al-Qaeda have struck at oil-related targets on both sides of the kingdom, killing five people at an oil export facility on the Red Sea and 22 in Khobar, neither attack directly hit oil facilities. But many experts warn that Saudi pipelines, refineries, oil wells and export terminals are enticing targets for al-Qaeda, whose operatives are threatening devastating attacks.

Concern has escalated over attacks on Iraqi facilities. Iraqi insurgents assassinated a top oil-security executive yesterday and blew up a critical pipeline. Serious attacks on Saudi and Iraqi oil targets would be tantamount to "an energy Pearl Harbor," forcing severe shortages and boosting prices in the United States and other countries heavily dependent on imported oil, said a senior analyst with the International Institute for Analysis of Global Security in Rockville, Md.

The United States gets more than 50 percent of its oil from foreign suppliers and the price already includes a $6 to $8 "anxiety premium" per barrel. Yesterday, oil closed at $37.32 a barrel, up 13 cents, on the New York Mercantile Exchange. "They can hit the homeland without ever leaving their own backyard," The senior anayst with the International Institute for Analysis of Global Security said.

Others expect an escalation in attacks. " It's not as bad as it's going to get," said a firefighter who worked for legendary oil-well firefighter Red Adair for 18 years and is now a manager in another firefighting company, Boots & Coots International Well Control. The firefighter, who helped extinguish 737 wells during the 1991 Persian Gulf War and recently put out a well fire blamed on insurgents in Iraq, said an attack could easily disable a section of remote desert pipeline with a well-placed explosive charge or even a single bullet in the pipe.

He also believed attackers can "shut down a refinery" by driving within 200 yards of the site with a truck bomb. "It's going to happen," he said. "It's the growing trend at the moment."

The president and chief executive officer of Saudi Aramco says his company can prevent such an attack. He described elaborate security that includes electrified fences with barbed wire, surveillance cameras, bomb-sniffing dogs, more than 5,000 Aramco guards, and thousands of government security forces. Helicopters conduct aerial surveillance, and the Saudi Coast Guard patrols near exporting facilities on the Red Sea and Persian Gulf, assisted by Aramco boats. "Our facilities are secure," the president said. "It's part of the design."

The president and chief executive officer of Saudi Aramco also said Aramco officials began focusing on security more than 20 years ago, when the Iran-Iraq war sparked prolonged regional turbulence. What he and other experts describe as "redundancy" is a security cornerstone, he said. Backup systems - and backups of the backups - can keep oil flowing even if a section of pipeline or refinery unit is disabled. "Our system has so much resilience that we would be able to carry on," he said.

A tour of the world's largest oil-processing facility at Abqaiq offers a glimpse of what Saudi Aramco calls typical security. At the main gate, a black Labrador named Lucky sniffs each car while guards screen visitors against an admission list. Metal barricades can pop up to block suspicious vehicles. The plant is installing an inspection room to screen women, acknowledging extremists' growing use of female suicide bombers.

Two-thirds of Saudi crude is processed at Abqaiq, a maze of pipes and million-barrel tanks and towers. Enclosed by electric fences, it has three explosion-resistant bunkers that serve as control centers, as well as 13 shelters to house employees during an emergency. Employees conduct weekly disaster drills, as well as larger quarterly drills with no warning. While they don't focus on specific scenarios, president and chief executive officer of Saudi Aramcof said the lessons would be useful for any conceivable calamity. "If you have an explosion in an oil facility, it's as devastating as a plane crash," he said.

Philadelphia Inquirer Foreign Staff.